Quantitative Biology

Thermodynamic models quantitatively describe interactions between transcription machinery and bacterial promoters. Contrary to conventional understanding, model analysis by Parisutham et al. (2025) attributes transcriptional inhibition by repressors to overstabilization of the RNA polymerase-promoter complex rather than prevention of its formation. Moreover, it suggests an inverse scaling relationship between basal promoter strength and transcriptional fold change, applicable to both repressor- and activator-mediated regulation. To reevaluate findings from this study, we systematically analyze empirical data and compare its framework with conventional thermodynamic models. In contrast to the inverse scaling relationship, data across multiple sources exhibit a peaked tradeoff between basal promoter strength and fold change, underscoring the importance of broad data coverage in revealing the full pattern required for reliable model inference. Furthermore, we identify the model assumption responsible for the apparent inverse scaling and misinterpretation of regulatory mechanisms. Relaxing this assumption enables the model to capture the peaked tradeoff and yield inferences consistent with established mechanisms of transcriptional repression and activation. We further derive a mathematical solution that connects basal expression to fold change for both repressor- and activator-regulated promoters. Our results underscore the importance of broad data coverage to avoid a blind-men-and-elephant interpretation and establish basal promoter strength as a key design parameter governing transcriptional regulation.

Mosquito-borne diseases pose a growing public health challenge as climate change reshapes vector population dynamics. West Nile virus (WNV), transmitted between birds and Culex mosquitoes, disproportionately affects Maricopa County, Arizona, one of the nation's highest-burden counties, yet whether models that include weather and avian dynamics improve forecast accuracy remains unclear. Using a 15-year weekly time series of mosquito abundance, mosquito infection prevalence, and human cases, we developed four mechanistic model configurations of varying complexity, from mosquito-human dynamics alone to full models incorporating avian dynamics and weather forcing. We fitted each model to the weekly-observed data, generated probabilistic 1- and 2-week-ahead forecast horizons, and evaluated forecasts against a historical baseline. All configurations fit the data equally regardless of weather or avian dynamics. However, models incorporating both birds and weather created more accurate forecasts of mosquito abundance and mosquito infection prevalence, and all configurations outperformed the baseline for forecasting human cases. Forecast accuracy was highest in summer and fall, and ensemble aggregation sometimes outperformed every individual model, stabilizing predictions across the 15-year record. These findings indicate that avian and weather dynamics are most critical for predicting mosquito-specific data, positioning this framework as a scalable tool for public health planning for WNV surveillance under climate change.

Label-free Raman imaging of living cells is photon limited: at exposures compatible with cellular dynamics, single-pixel spectra carry about one count per channel on a dominant smooth background. We present an unmixing framework in which the decoder of a physics-constrained autoencoder is restricted to a data-driven spectroscopic dictionary: band centers,widths, and pseudo-Voigt shapes are measured from the dataset and fixed, and the network learns only nonnegative band amplitudes, a smooth B-spline background, and a per-pixel gain.First, on slit-scanning images of HeLa cells (532 nm) the dictionary yields spike-free component spectra that read as band tables, including a resonance-enhanced cytochrome-c-associated component matching literature spectra, and the most stable decomposition against the component number. Second, the dictionary and initialization calibrated at 1 s exposure perline transfer to 100 ms per line (12 s sweeps): cytochrome-c spectral identity survives a single sweep (correlation 0.92) while its map remains photon limited; the dictionary provides spectral physicality, and the transferred initialization prevents a structural collapse that global map correlations miss; in a measurement-derived phantom the dictionary estimator holds thecytochrome-c spectrum to 17-19{degrees} spectral angle at 100 ms, where classical factorizations and free decoders lose it (55-64{degrees}). Estimation on the count-equivalent detector output uses a calibrated shifted-Poisson quasi-likelihood. Third, evaluation must be time matched:correlation against a separately acquired reference saturates through slow specimen drift and acquisition mismatch rather than photon noise, and the self-consistency of learned denoisers is inflated by shared bias; time-matched self-consistency and independent cross-checks areproposed.

The 17th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, announced on 15 May 2026, was attributed to Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV). Although case isolation is the main control strategy, its effectiveness is compromised when patients escape isolation facilities before recovery. Between 14 May and 17 June 2026, 175 individuals reportedly left isolation facilities without formal discharge across Ituri Province. We assessed how this "isolation leakage" affects community transmission. We refined the SEIHFR framework to distinguish undetected community infections, detected but not-yet-isolated cases, isolated individuals, leakage, funeral-associated transmission, and removals. Using Bayesian inference, we fitted the model to daily Ituri surveillance data, escapee counts, and isolation census records. We estimated the leakage rate, reporting and detection probabilities, and the transmission rate, while fixing other parameters based on the BDBV literature. The model reproduced confirmed cases, deaths, discharges, and escapees. We estimated R_0=3.67 (95% HDI: 2.0-5.7), a leakage rate of {rho} {approx} 0.034 day^-1 (0.022-0.051), and high contact-tracing-driven detection (p_d {approx} 0.91-0.99). Leakage increased the detection-dependent reproduction number [R](p_d) from approximately 3.2 to above 5. Eliminating leakage reduced cumulative infections by about one-third, from 1,120 to 764, while the minimum detection level required for control increased from p_d [≥] 0.73 without leakage to p_d [≥] 0.87 at the fitted leakage rate. Shortening time to isolation prevented the most infections (73.4%; 59-84), followed by reducing leakage (29.7%; 14-52) and re-isolating escapees (12.6%; 6-24). Delaying leakage reduction until week 4 reduced its benefit from about 27% to below 2%. Isolation leakage represents a major transmission pathway that has until now gone largely unmeasured. While rapid initiation of isolation is highly beneficial, it cannot compensate for permeable isolation; therefore, early, community-driven efforts to control leakage, embedded within a multilayered response, are critical.

Forecasting influenza hospitalizations informs public health preparedness, yet questions remain about which types of forecasts best guide action. We evaluate categorical trend forecasts, which communicate probabilities of upcoming increases or decreases in epidemic trajectories, submitted to CDC's FluSight Forecasting Challenge between Fall-2024 and Spring-2026. Teams submitted probability distributions over five categories describing direction and magnitude of week-over-week changes in laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions. We assessed performance using Ranked Probability Skill Score, Brier Skill Score, and measures of forecast-observation agreement. Most models outperformed an equal-probability baseline; the FluSight ensemble ranked among the top three in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. Forecasts were most accurate during stable periods and least during periods of rapid change, with most models underestimating observed trends. Conclusions were robust to choice of scoring metric and reference model. These results support categorical trend ensembles as an approach to communicating infectious disease forecasts that may inform public health decision-making.

Abstract Imaging-based spatially resolved transcriptomics (imSRT) technologies provide high-throughput molecular-resolution spatial characterization of genes within cells. Conventional analysis methods to identify cell-types and states in imSRT data rely on gene count matrices derived from tallying the number of mRNA molecules detected for each gene per segmented cell, thereby overlooking subcellular heterogeneity that can be useful in defining cell states. To take advantage of the molecular-resolution information in imSRT data and potentially identify cell-states based on subcellular heterogeneity, we developed STARIT (Spatial Transcriptomics As Rasterized Image Tensors). STARIT converts transcripts within segmented cells in imSRT data into an image-based tensor representation that can be combined with deep learning computer vision models for downstream analysis. Using simulated and real imSRT data, we demonstrate that STARIT distinguishes transcriptionally distinct cell-types and further separates cell states based on subcellular transcript localization, which conventional gene count analysis fails to capture. By providing a standardized framework to encode subcellular molecular information in imSRT data, STARIT will enable deeper insights into subcellular heterogeneity and enhance the identification and characterization of cell-types and states that are overlooked by gene count representations.

The dynamics of gene regulatory networks are governed by intrinsic noise, stemming from the random nature of biochemical reactions, and by extrinsic noise, arising from fluctuations in cellular components and environmental conditions. Together, these sources can compromise the reliability of predictive computational models if not properly accounted for, and capturing both effects within a single framework remains a non-trivial task in computational biology. In this work, we propose an uncertainty quantification framework that addresses these two contributions jointly: intrinsic stochasticity is described through a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the protein probability density function, whereas extrinsic noise is represented as parametric uncertainty in the kinetic parameters. The propagation of the uncertainty is carried out via an intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), in which the PCE coefficients are obtained from a stochastic Galerkin projection of the PIDE, yielding a coupled deterministic system that is solved with standard numerical methods. We illustrate the approach on a positive autoregulatory gene network with one and two uncertain kinetic parameters. The proposed approach accurately reproduces the mean, variance, and full protein probability density function, including the bimodal distributions, at a substantially lower computational cost.

Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.

Background Dengue is a major public health challenge, and predictive models are crucial for early warning systems. However, many current modeling practices rely exclusively on climatic factors or employ complex algorithms that lack the interpretability needed for informed public health decision-making. To address these shortcomings, we developed and validated a multidimensional, interpretable statistical model to predict monthly dengue incidence. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with a Negative Binomial distribution to analyze 14 years (2010-2023) of spatiotemporal data from 37 municipalities in Huila, Colombia, an endemic region. The model integrates non-linear and lagged effects of climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. The final model underwent rigorous external validation on an independent test set (2021-2023). Our model demonstrated high predictive discrimination (R2 = 0.743, Spearman's {rho} = 0.657), accurately capturing the timing of epidemic outbreaks. Key findings include the identification of an optimal thermal window for transmission at 27-28{degrees}C, a threshold effect for precipitation above 800 mm, and a saturation dynamic in outbreak autocorrelation. Conclusions/Significance This mechanistically-informed statistical approach provides a robust and transparent tool for epidemiological surveillance, successfully balancing high predictive performance with the explanatory power needed for effective, data-driven public health interventions.

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates can vary widely between years and populations, even for the same vaccine. Estimated VE is known to be sensitive to susceptible depletion and differences in pre-vaccination infection risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. However, how variation in pre-vaccination risk within and between the two groups affects VE estimates over time remains unclear. This uncertainty is especially important given negative VE estimates. We investigated the difference between estimated VE and true vaccine protection considering continuous distributions of pre-vaccination infection risk under three scenarios. When the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations differ in their mean risk, estimated VE can be higher or lower than true vaccine protection. Similar patterns arise when both populations share identical means but different risk distributions. Finally, if infection-derived immunity lasts longer than vaccine protection, annual VE estimates can vary by tens of percentage points between years despite constant true vaccine protection. These theoretical results underscore that VE studies estimate contrasting risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in a particular time and place, and VE estimates can vary counterintuitively between years and populations even with constant vaccine-induced protection. Explaining variability in estimated VE thus requires a more complete understanding of populations' distributions of infection risk.

Radiation-induced DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) drive cellular mortality, mutagenesis, and severe evolutionary bottlenecks. While classical phenomenological models, such as the Linear-Quadratic (LQ) framework, reliably predict macroscopic population survival, they obscure the intrinsic single-cell stochasticity that governs critical rare events like tumor recurrence or the emergence of radioresistant persisters. To bridge this divide, we develop a mathematically exact stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework that models continuous DSB induction and repair as a Feller square-root process. By deriving exact closed-form expressions for the foci moments, we establish a highly efficient Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) pipeline that circumvents computationally exhaustive Monte Carlo simulations, allowing the direct extraction of deterministic repair velocities and intrinsic molecular noise from empirical single-cell $\gamma$-H2AX data. Integrating this kinetic model with a cumulative damage hazard via the Feynman-Kac formalism, our framework seamlessly recovers the classic macroscopic LQ survival topology from microscopic first principles. Furthermore, systematic sensitivity analysis uncovers a fundamental evolutionary duality: while initial physical damage operates additively, ultimate cellular fate is driven by a nonlinear survival response governed by the trade-off between the damage hazard rate and intrinsic molecular noise strength. Crucially, we demonstrate that this molecular noise inherently enhances population survival. Governed by Jensen's inequality, stochastic variance acts as a non-genetic bet-hedging mechanism that buffers the population by favoring cells with transiently low damage loads. Ultimately, this exact stochastic framework bridges microscopic biophysics and macroscopic demographics, offering deep mechanistic insights into the evolutionary roots of radioresistance.

Proteins are dynamic molecules existing in diverse conformational states underlying their biological functions. Although recent approaches have enabled diverse conformational sampling by emulating molecular dynamics simulations, perturbing evolutionary information, or steering internal mechanisms of structure prediction models, predicting conformations resulting from major domain motions or motions that occur over long timescales still remains a challenge. To this end, we introduce GNMCADS, a conformational sampling strategy that enhances the diversity of protein diffusion models by selectively annealing the conditioning signal guided by the intrinsic dynamical organization of the sampled protein. Further, we implement GNMCADS in the diffusion module of AlphaFold3, enabling the generation of diverse protein conformations. When benchmarked across 92 proteins that include 54 class A GPCRs, 15 transporters, and 23 proteins with major domain movements, GNMCADS exhibits improved sampling diversity compared to other current conformational sampling methods.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is estimated from a limited number of clinics using a test-negative design. These standard estimates face geographic, temporal, and operational constraints. Using Twitter/X data, we applied few-shot chain-of-thought prompting to identify self-reported vaccination status and influenza test results, then implemented a test-negative-like design to estimate VE. Our estimates fell within the range of interim reports and could complement current systems, improving feasibility, timeliness, and scalability.

Recent advances in protein structure prediction, exemplified by AlphaFold, have largely addressed the determination of static structures, one aspect of the protein folding problem. However, predicting folding pathways, by which proteins reach their native states, remains a significant challenge. Here, we present PathFold, a deep learning framework that predicts protein folding pathways directly from sequence information. PathFold leverages an AlphaFold-based module to extract structural information from the sequence and generates a progressive folding trajectory from an extended conformation using a diffusion model. By modeling the full trajectory, it enables prediction of folding intermediates and transition pathways, analogous to those observed in steered molecular dynamics (SMD) simulations. The predicted pathways reveal well-defined intermediates and sequential folding events, and show agreement with experimental folding data, including measured {Phi}-values.

Bacterial genome-wide association studies (GWAS) offer a powerful approach to identify the genetic basis of a trait measured in a set of sequenced isolates. As the number of sequenced isolates has grown, the limiting factor for GWAS has become phenotyping enough isolates to achieve statistical power. To overcome the need for large-scale phenotyping, we developed Bayesian Adaptive Sequential Sampling GWAS (BASS-GWAS), which couples Bayesian adaptive experimental design with a sparse regression model to select maximally informative isolates for phenotypic testing. BASS-GWAS efficiently recovered causal loci for three antimicrobial resistance traits in Neisseria gonorrhoeae, requiring many fewer phenotyped isolates than random sampling. We applied BASS-GWAS to discover variants enabling gyrBD429N-dependent cross-resistance to the novel topoisomerase inhibitors zoliflodacin and gepotidacin. After phenotyping fewer than 30 isolates, we identified and then validated both parCD86N and a gyrA-parE-based pathway as enabling cross-resistance. BASS-GWAS provides a practical and statistically principled solution for efficient bacterial GWAS.

BACKGROUND People with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of cerebral small vessel disease and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), potentially contributing to cognitive decline and dementia. We aimed to describe brain volume and cognitive trajectories over 2 years in a cohort of people with T2DM and to determine whether LVH causes increased brain atrophy and cognitive decline. METHODS Diabetes and Dementia (D2) study is a multicentre observational cohort study in Melbourne, Australia. Participants aged >50 years were recruited via 2 hospital outpatient clinics, 3 private clinics, and study advertisements. Participants with pre-existing cognitive impairment, life-limiting medical illness, and severe chronic renal impairment were excluded. Participants attended study visits for brain MRI, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), and cognitive testing at baseline and 2 years. The exposure was LVH determined on baseline TTE. Pre-specified outcomes were total brain volume (TBV) change and cognitive decline (z-score change?-1 in any cognitive domain) over 2 years. Regression analyses examined associations between baseline variables and outcomes. A causal inference approach was utilized using inverse probability of treatment weighting to standardize for confounding covariates, excluding participants for non-positivity on age and baseline TBV. RESULTS Participants were recruited 20May2016 to 20March2020: 2378 screened, 702 eligible, 196 consented, 150 baseline and 123 2-year assessments with complete MRI, TTE, and cognitive data (17.4% attrition). At baseline, LVH was associated with female sex, older age, lower educational attainment, lower mood, hypertension, obesity, beta-blocker use, and smaller TBV. Participants with baseline cognitive impairment exhibited greater brain atrophy. Lower educational attainment, hypertension, and lower baseline cognitive scores were associated with cognitive decline. Causal inference analysis included 62 participants with no LVH (20(32%) women; mean [SD]=66.9[5.9] years), and 31 with LVH (17(55%) women, 67.4[5.4] years). LVH caused lower TBV change: standardized mean difference (95% CI) 6.3 (0.1, 12.5) cm3, P=.048. LVH had no effect on cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS Brain atrophy and cognitive decline were associated with baseline cognitive impairment. LVH caused less brain atrophy and cognitive decline in people with T2DM. We conclude that guideline-directed LVH therapies such as beta-blockers have both cardioprotective (remodelling) and neuroprotective effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION ACTRN12616000546459 UTN: U1111-1181-6659

Importance: Evidence on GLP-1/GIP therapies is largely derived from trials enrolling selected populations or medical records that miss utilization outside healthcare channels. No nationally representative cohort has characterized real-world uptake, indications, and access. Objective: To characterize GLP-1/GIP prevalence, indication, clinical profile, and access. Design: Prospective cohort study with three GLP-1/GIP surveillance waves (March 2024, December 2024, October 2025). Setting: The Understanding America Study, an address-based, nationally representative panel of approximately 15,000 US adults aged 18+ years initiated in 2014. Participants: UAS participants responding to at least one surveillance wave (n=9150). Exposures: GLP-1/GIP use status (never vs any use, comprising current and former use), self-reported primary indication (diabetes, weight loss, or other), and access pathway (traditional vs non-traditional). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey-weighted prevalence of GLP-1/GIP use, overall and by indication and access pathway; sociodemographic, cardiometabolic, treatment, and access characteristics; and smartwatch-derived resting heart rate, heart rate variability, maximum activity heart rate, step count, and sleep duration and variability. Results: Among n=9150 adults (1274 with any use; 60.9% female; median age 53 years), weighted prevalence increased 46%, from 8.2% (March 2024) to 12.0% (October 2025) representing 32 million. Weight-loss indications grew, reaching nearly half of use (4.1% to 5.6%); diabetes-indicated use was stable (5.3% to 5.4%). Users carried high cardiometabolic burden (obesity, 68.2%; diabetes, 53.6%) but diverged by indication: diabetes-indicated users were older (median, 59 vs 49 years), whereas weight-loss-indicated users were more often female (69.9% vs 51.3%) and healthier. One in three users (~9 million) had non-traditional access, especially in weight-loss-indicated users, of whom 33% had no conventional prescription; 41% used compounding, online, or foreign pharmacies; and, 43% lacked coverage. Non-traditional users were five times as likely to report an unlisted, likely compounded formulation (19.8% vs 4.1%). All p<0.05. Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world GLP-1/GIP use has grown rapidly and diversified substantially in indication, access, and population profile. One in 3 users obtained treatment through nontraditional channels largely invisible to claims data, raising long-term safety, efficacy, and coverage questions. GLIMMER provides a public, nationally representative longitudinal evidence base for future payer and provider decisions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used by clinicians and patients for medical queries, yet their accuracy and safety at the specialist level in hematology remain insufficiently characterised. We benchmarked ten frontier proprietary and open-weight LLMs across two generations on 1,477 board-style hematology multiple-choice questions (MCQs) derived from five educational datasets spanning nine disease areas and six clinical skill domains, including text-only and multimodal case vignettes. Claude Opus 5 had the highest mean accuracy (92.7% text, 76.9% multimodal), followed closely by Gemini-3.1 Pro (91.4% and 78.7%), Gemini-3.6 Flash (91.0% and 74.8%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (89.9% and 76.7%). Accuracy significantly correlated with model size both for text-only and multimodal MCQs. Between model generations, the largest improvements in accuracy were seen for open-weight models whereas proprietary models showed only marginal gains. In error analysis, top-performing models exhibited highly concordant failure patterns, suggesting shared limitations on challenging cases. Frontier LLMs exhibit substantial specialist hematology knowledge across diverse subspecialist domains and clinical skill sets. Yet, despite high accuracy on board-style questions in hematology, continuous expert-on-the-loop output monitoring is paramount.

Background. Videolaryngoscopy still requires adjuncts or hyperangulated rescue in a clinically important minority, and bedside screening discriminates modestly. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) of the anterior airway is a promising alternative, but existing prediction models are opaque or assume a pre-specified functional form. We developed and internally validated a parsimonious, fully disclosed POCUS risk equation whose form is recovered from data and whose structural properties are machine-checked by formal proof - to our knowledge the first formally verified clinical risk predictor - following TRIPOD+AI 2024. Methods. In a prospective single-centre, single-operator cohort of 259 adults undergoing elective videolaryngoscopy (no-Easy airway 68/259, 26.3%), Sequentially Thresholded Least Squares with bootstrap stability selection (B=300) screened a 71-term library of nine POCUS features and retained a seven-term logistic equation; a two-term bootstrap-stable model was pre-specified as robustness analysis. Internal validation used 5x10 repeated cross-validation plus temporal and device hold-outs, with pre-specified overfitting and optimism assessments. Five behavioural properties of the deployed equation were machine-checked in Lean 4. Results. Two interactions met the |c|/sigma_c>2 stability criterion: skin-to-epiglottis x skin-to-hyoid-bone distance and tongue volume x sagittal tongue area. The seven-term equation reached a 5x10 cross-validated C-statistic of 0.966 (optimism-corrected 0.968) and held across temporal and device hold-outs (0.94-0.97). Calibration-in-the-large matched prevalence, with cross-validated slope 0.90 attenuating to 0.625 out-of-time; standard recalibration restored 0.92 without loss of discrimination. The pre-specified two-term robustness model reproduced this performance (C-statistic 0.964-0.968; events-per-parameter 34; shrinkage 0.99), confirming the result is not an artefact of the screening stage. Net benefit over a clinical baseline was positive across 10-50% thresholds. All five Lean 4 theorems compiled without sorry. Conclusions. A sparse, formally verified POCUS equation predicts difficult videolaryngoscopy with high internally validated discrimination and quantified, modest overfitting. Because the equation was developed in a single-operator cohort and its inputs are operator-dependent, external validation requires prior harmonisation of the measurement protocol and operator credentialing.

Abstract Objective: Glaucoma is a chronic disorder that impairs ocular health and may exacerbate ocular surface disease leading to tear film instability, dry eye symptoms and decreased quality of life. This study compared changes in tear quantity among glaucoma subjects living with and without diabetes mellitus, attending an eye clinic in Nigeria. Methods: A comparative cross sectional research design was used. 157 subjects which comprised 74 glaucoma subjects living with diabetes mellitus and 83 glaucoma subjects living without diabetes mellitus participated in the study. Tear quantity assessment included the Schirmer I test and tear meniscus height (TMH) measurement. Descriptive statistics, independent samples t-test and Chi-square test were used to examine the data at 0.05 level of significance. Results: Glaucoma subjects living with diabetes mellitus showed substantially decreased tear production (11.4 +/- 6.8 mm) compared with glaucoma subjects living without diabetes mellitus (19.6 +/- 9.6 mm; p < 0.001). Tear meniscus height in glaucoma subjects living with diabetes mellitus (0.8 +/- 0.3 mm) was significantly greater than in subjects living without diabetes mellitus (0.7 +/- 0.3 mm; p = 0.034). Conclusion: Diabetes mellitus dramatically deteriorates the ocular surface function in glaucoma subjects by decreasing tear production, altering the tear meniscus height and increasing the severity of ocular surface symptoms. Routine glaucoma care, especially in patients with diabetes mellitus, should include a full ocular surface evaluation including Schirmer I test, TBUT, TMH, and OSDI assessment to allow early detection and management of ocular surface disease, better treatment adherence, and improved visual outcomes. Keywords: Glaucoma, Diabetes Mellitus, Tear production, Tear Meniscus Height, Ocular Surface Disease.